Every year, after the early round of decisions, we’re asked about trends we’re noticing. Anything noteworthy? Any big takeaways? While we have the benefit of working with many dozens of students at a time across different geographic areas, it can still be hard to extrapolate at this time of year, as data comes out in tiny pieces from the colleges that deign to share it. That said, if we had to come to a few conclusions about early applications, they would include the following:
Early pools are bigger than ever
This is not unexpected; it’s a headline more or less every year. Some of the notable growth in Early Decision pools includes Brown and Emory, whose ED applications rose 10%, and Williams, whose pool increased by almost 16% (and yes, these correspond, in turn, to lower acceptance rates). Wake Forest hasn’t officially released numbers, but anecdotal evidence points to a big bump in applications, and they also changed their structure of review, going from traditional rolling ED to releasing decisions in batches once a month.
On the Early Action side, the University of Georgia saw 21% growth in their EA pool, and Clemson also saw record numbers. Schools like these, which are state institutions, must balance dramatic increases in out of state applicants with mandates to maintain certain in-state and out-of-state proportions (for example, UGA aims for 80% in-state enrollment), so we can expect to see OOS acceptance rates drop for the year once they’re published.
The takeaway:
Early Decision remains a critical strategy for many of our students, and a student’s best chance to get into a reach school is generally still in the ED round, despite increases in applicant pools. Students interested in early applications to state universities should also keep in mind that overall acceptance rates might not reflect in-state vs. out-of-state numbers and ensure their lists are balanced accordingly.
Early Action: Is it, though?
It’s easy to look at the past with rosy-tinted glasses, but man, do we find ourselves missing Ye Olde College Admissions Times when EA schools like Michigan and Wisconsin actually gave decisions, you know, early. Alas, today we find ourselves in a place where a student who applied to lots of schools Early Action — let’s say University of Miami, UVA, UNC Chapel Hill, Michigan, Northeastern, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Florida (which is technically priority, not EA, but we’ll allow it) — won’t actually hear from a single one until late January at the earliest.
The takeaway:
Students applying to Early Action schools should look carefully at decision release dates and understand that they might be getting almost all their news in the new year. This means they won’t get important feedback and can’t make adjustments to their Regular Decision lists based on EA news. A lot of our students and families have also shared that it can be difficult emotionally to not be “in” yet by this time of year — consider adding rolling schools and/or schools with earlier releases to mitigate anxiety in the process!
Defer, defer, defer
When students do get decisions…there will probably be quite a few deferrals in there! Colleges with Early Action deadlines are increasingly using yield management strategies like deferrals, or what we prefer to call “pulling a Michigan.”
Yield management — or trying to admit the perfect number of students in order to enroll the right size first-year class — is always a challenge for admissions offices, and has been made more challenging by the pandemic. Gap years, surprisingly high yields, and other factors have led to overenrollment, housing crises, and all kinds of administrative nightmares over the past couple years. Deferring students can be an important way for a college to manage their enrollment across the year; it not only allows the school to see their whole applicant pool, but in many cases helps them assess a student’s genuine level of interest, which can be essential for getting their yield rate right.
The takeaway:
Students should be prepared for deferrals. For more advice on how to manage those, check out our blog on writing letters of continued interest! However, students should take heart that a lot of deferred applicants at these schools will indeed get in, and understand that this is part of the college’s larger strategy for managing their applicant pool.
Test Optional: A mess, as usual!
If only we had a way to essentialize test optional policies and results into a pithy sound bite that applies to everyone. Unfortunately, the test optional landscape remains a bit like the Wild West, and colleges are not all employing it in the same way. One noteworthy thing we’ve seen is that a few colleges have encouraged our deferred students to try to submit scores if they were deferred, even if the score was on the low end of the school’s range; this is hardly common practice, though (and, notably, was at moderately selective public institutions). Very little data has been released about early pools in terms of who submitted scores and at what rate they were admitted—we have yet to find a press release with this information (in contrast to a couple years ago, when schools like Tufts and Penn were a little more forthcoming)—but we’ll be tracking that if and when it is released.
The takeaway:
Our best advice for underclassmen remains that they should prepare for the exams as best they can and keep a close eye on this year’s results and any updates in policies. We’ll share them as they come! In the meantime, check out our 2023 Test Optional Almanac and our Testing Landscape page.
Curious about our analysis of the 2023 Regular Decisions cycle? Check out our blog. Need more personalized guidance on your early applications strategy? Contact our college admissions team.
